A Few Statistics…
At Warburg, we signed 16% more contracts in March than we did in February. We did 64% of the number of deals in March 2009 than we did in March 2008, but the dollar volume of the deals in March 2009 is 80% of the dollar volume in March 2008. So there were fewer deals, but they were bigger. So the market is seeing an increasing number of transactions, and good sized ones at that.
Another interesting fact is that more or less the same number of properties came onto the market in March of 2009 as in March of 2008. There is no flood of new inventory. What IS happening is that slower absorption rates (and absorption is taking several months longer on average than it was a year or two ago) force the inventory supply curve to trend upward. But those Bear Stearns, or Lehman, or Citigroup, or Madoff apartments which were going to flood the marketplace? It has not happened.
And the stock market is making buyers feel more confident. No one knows if this is the bottom, but enough people felt good about prices in March to get us a dollar volume of signed contracts at 80% of last year’s number. We are thrilled with THAT!