In the wake of the results of the U.S. elections, many people are wondering how these changes will impact the real estate market, and, in particular, the New York City real estate market.  Of course it is still early to tell for sure and we will be seeing updates every day, but I have aggregated below the views of some of the top real estate analysts as well as my own views based on 25+ years in the business, during which I have seen ebbs and flows brought on by a number of factors, including politics.

Jonathan Smoke, the chief economist at Realtor.com, does not foresee any immediate effect on the housing market. “Because our November elections come at one of the slowest times of the year for sales, it’s unlikely we will see much disruption to the normal seasonal pattern,” he said. (link to article)

While many are prognosticating on the election’s impact on the national housing market, the New York City market generally does not fall in line with the rest of the country, and never has. “New York as a City by itself is fairly insulated, to a large degree. I think the city itself as an infrastructure, as a community, will keep marching on and keep working it out ourselves,” Kevin Hoo, founder and managing partner of Cove Property Group, a

NYC-based developer, told Real Estate Weekly. (link to article)

Lower taxes and less regulation can be expected and the interest rates will go up significantly for the first time since 2006, which is probably good for our real estate market. However, should Trump’s proposals regarding foreign trade agreements and policies move forward, there may be some fallout from foreign investors buying high-end luxury properties. In addition, economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association are now predicting that mortgage rates will “trend higher than we had previously forecast, which will more quickly decrease refis.” They still predict a strong home purchase loan market. Mortgage rates have already increased since the election, for the first time in 2 ½ years. (link to article)

Moreover, the 421A tax abatement has been reinstated, which is great news for new construction, as it is a ten-year tax abatement for buyers of these condos and will encourage additional new construction. That, plus the fact that both Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are major New York developers, seems to point to continued growth in new construction and development across the city.

Developments on a local level will also have a positive impact on the market, such as the anticipated completion of the Second Avenue Subway in the coming months (we believe it will be ready in early 2017).  This will substantially increase the value of properties on the Upper East Side, where construction of several new properties is well underway.  While there has been a recent slowdown in sales of ultra-high-end properties due to a glut of inventory, smaller apartments, particularly one and two bedrooms, are moving quickly in the market at good values. Should you be interested in a one-bedroom apartment now is a good time to purchase. It is also a perfect time to buy a luxury apartment priced over $5M since sellers are more willing to negotiate due to the market slowdown. There are many really good buys!

As always, please feel free to contact me if you have any questions about the real estate market, the value of your home, are interested in looking at new properties, or anything else.

Have a peaceful Thanksgiving.

I am so grateful to be surrounded by such wonderful people like you!